Non-college career pathways have a math problem

For much of the last few decades, some young people have heard a simple mantra: bachelor’s or bust. That is, the best and perhaps only path to economic prosperity is through a four-year college education. Now a wide swath of politicians, educators, and philanthropists are rethinking this. Some even suggest that there are numerous lucrative jobs that don’t require a degree.

A New York Times video explained that “Job demand in fields like construction, along with the allure of potential six-figure salaries, have some high schools investing in hands-on classes that are redefining what success looks like for the Class of 2026.”

At the recent Education Writers Association conference, Maryland Gov. Wes Moore suggested high schools are too focused on getting students into college. If a student chooses a different route “and they find something that’s going to make them have economic mobility for them and their family, then right on,” he said.

Amidst this enthusiasm I wanted to take a look at the data to answer a simple but contested question: How likely is it that students can skip a four-year degree and make a good living or achieve “economic mobility?”

The short answer is it’s certainly possible, but the odds are stacked against workers without degrees. “We all want the $70,000 job that a student can access right outside of high school,” says Dom McKoy, executive director of the University of Chicago’s To&Through Project. But those opportunities are rare. “We have to be really clear-eyed about what is a true pathway at scale for young people.”

Some non-college occupations offer solidly middle-class salaries — but the largest ones typically don’t

To analyze this issue, I used federal Bureau of Labor Statistics data on pay by occupation, organized by the share of workers with a bachelor’s degree or higher.

On average, jobs where degrees are required or encouraged pay more. Notably, though, a handful of jobs in the blue-collar trades also make slightly above the national median. Those include plumbers, machinists, HVAC installers, and carpenters, among others. Although these jobs typically require some form of postsecondary training, and in some cases students take on debt, they don’t demand four-year degrees. 

Still, the most common non-college jobs make far below the median. For instance, there are over 4 million people who work as home health and personal care aides in America, the largest single occupation. That’s more than the number of plumbers, electricians, carpenters, HVAC specialists, welders, car mechanics, roofers, and power-line installers combined. The Bureau of Labor Statistics predicts more growth in jobs for home health aides than any other occupation. The median salary is about $35,000 a year. 

Other large non-college vocations — each encompassing millions of people — include retail sales workers, cashiers, order stockers, waiters and waitresses, fast-food workers, and janitors. All of these pay substantially below the median. One exception is truck driving, a position that pays relatively well and employs millions of people. But many fear the job is at particularly high risk of automation.

All this maps onto other data showing that college-educated workers have a large wage advantage, on average, compared to those without a degree.

Better-paid, non-college occupations employ few women

Most of these relatively well-paid blue-collar jobs are dominated by men. In some cases, fewer than 10% of the positions are filled by women. Many of the large, lower-paid occupations, including home health aides, have a high share of women.

Some of the lower-paid careers where college degrees are required — including teaching and social work — are also largely staffed by women. Their salaries still outstrip the vast majority of non-college options, though. This suggests that forgoing college is particularly risky for girls and women. 

Despite the headlines, six-figure salaries are rare in non-college jobs

The vast majority of non-college roles, including blue collar trades, earn below-average wages. This is different from median wages, which captures the typical worker’s experience. The average salary is usually higher than the median because it includes more of the upside for top earners within a profession.

This data indicates that non-college occupations have relatively low pay ceilings. The slew of headlines and viral social media videos about six-figure jobs in the trades appear to be outliers. In many cases, only the top 10%, or fewer, of those workers make such salaries.

Many occupations have a combination of workers with and without four-year degrees.

So far, I’ve been focusing on the distinction between college and non-college pathways, but as the data makes clear, this is not a simple binary. 

In many cases, degree-holders likely have an edge within an occupation. But in other cases, the degree may have little, if any, value. A significant minority of lower-paid jobs are held by college graduates; even more are held by those who attended college but didn’t earn a degree. For instance, nearly half of home health aides spent at least some time in college. 

Will AI change all of this?

This data cannot answer whether a particular student should attend college. That depends on what profession they want to pursue, their chances of graduating, the debt they may have to take on, and the quality of college they would attend. It also depends on an unknown future. The economy is always changing and may shift rapidly in the coming decades.

A recent Wall Street Journal survey found some economists predicting that AI will reduce demand for white-collar work. But others predicted no change or even said that there would be more demand for knowledge work.

The bottom line: Considering how the economy is currently structured, it’s risky to bet against the value of a bachelor’s degree.

Methodological note: The data we used here extrapolates hourly pay rates into estimated annual salaries for full-time workers. These figures, including the national median and average, do not count overtime pay, certain bonuses, and some other forms of compensation. We categorized the largest 250 occupations — encompassing the vast majority of workers — by the share of workers who have attained at least a bachelor’s degree. Other forms of postsecondary education are not included in this analysis. Keep in mind that there is substantial variation among workers in the same occupation, including by region, educational level, experience, union status, and more. 

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